Only One Democrat Can Stop Dual-Republican November Ballot in CA-40

Tulchin Research Poll projects primary tie between Kim-Varet and Calvert.

Kim-Varet is the only Democrat with a paid media campaign, putting CA-40 district in play.

Poll projects Democrats boxed-out by vote splitting in any other scenario, for the only U.S. House contest in the nation with two incumbent Republicans.

RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA, CA. A Tulchin Research poll of 800 likely CA-40 voters, commissioned by Esther Kim-Varet for Congress, confirms Democrats have only one path to the November general election in California’s 40th Congressional District, the only House district in the nation whose contest includes two incumbent Republican Representatives.

Tulchin Research’s poll tested three primary scenarios.

In two of them, both Ken Calvert and Young Kim advance to the general election, with Democrats boxed out of a must-win seat. In the third scenario, Esther Kim-Varet advances to face Ken Calvert in the general election. The Esther Kim-Varet campaign is the only campaign to have the resources needed to execute an actual paid communication campaign and advance to the general campaign.

Scenario 1: No substantive paid communication by any Democratic campaign. The Democratic vote splits several ways against unknown candidates, with most voters going only by the names and designations printed on their ballots. Calvert 25%, Young Kim 21%. Kim-Varet is in a statistical tie with two other Democrats. Both Republicans advance to the general election.

Scenario 2: Voters hear all candidates’ biographies. Kim-Varet surges to 21% and takes the Democratic lead. It is not enough. Both Republicans still advance.

Scenario 3: Esther Kim-Varet is the only challenger candidate with a paid-media campaign, communicating her bio and messaging to likely primary voters. Kim-Varet rises to get 30% of the vote. Calvert is statistically tied with Kim-Varet for first place at 29%. Young Kim collapses to 20% and is displaced from November, outside the margin of error. This is the only scenario per the poll in which any Democrat makes the November ballot, and this is the exact scenario now playing out in CA-40. Kim-Varet is the only Democrat in the race with a paid media campaign or the resources to deploy one.

Kim-Varet has more cash on hand today than all other Democrats in the race have raised from external donors combined since they entered this race.

Kim-Varet’s first TV advertisement, produced by ArmourEvans (the firm that advised successful OC challenger candidate Rep. Derek Tran in Orange County last cycle), debuted on April 17 and is now airing across the district. Weekly direct mail is dropping to nearly 50,000 Democratic primary voters, a district-wide text messaging program, 2,500 field signs across CA-40, and 200 trained volunteers are all already deployed, in advance of the start of primary mail-in voting in early May.

Republicans realize that Kim-Varet can and will flip the new 40th District.

This week, the Republican Party of Riverside County warned members across all of its communication channels that “radical liberal” Esther Kim-Varet “is coming for this seat” and called on Republicans to rally around Ken Calvert as the only person who can “stop her.” Republicans have read the Tulchin poll. They have read the FEC filings. They know which Democrat is the threat.

“The numbers don't lie, and the stakes could not be higher,” said Esther Kim-Varet. “I am the only Democrat in this race with the resources, the organization, and the paid media reach it will take to prevail in this primary. The local Republican Party already knows I can flip this district given the fractured 'jungle primary' math, and they are sounding the alarm. They are right to be scared.”

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California’s newly drawn 40th Congressional District, spanning portions of Riverside County and Orange County, is one of the most consequential U.S. House battlegrounds in the nation. CA-40 is the only district in America where two Republican incumbents (Young Kim and Ken Calvert) are running against each other in the primary. First-time candidate Esther Kim-Varet has raised nearly $3 million powered by more than 60,000 grassroots small-dollar contributions. Esther is a working mom of two and a small business owner running for Congress to restore the American Dream. In Congress, Esther will combat corruption, defend democracy, and fight for the middle class, small businesses, public education, and healthcare access.